Dynamic Simulation and Tradeoffs and Synergies of Ecosystem Service Value in Metropolitan Suburbs Using the PLUS Model

INTRODUCTION: Due to rapid economic development and continuous human activities, land use changes in the suburbs of metropolitan areas are drastic, which in turn affects the balance of ecosystem functions. Analyzing and predicting the ecological service value characteristics and trade-offs in rapidly urbanizing regions is of great significance for promoting high-quality regional development. AIM: This study attempts to reveal the trade-off and synergistic characteristics between the internal values of ecosystem services in suburban metropolitan areas under the influence of rapid urbanization. METHODS: Based on the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, simulated the land use changes in Xinzheng City under multiple scenarios in 2030, combined with methods such as equivalent factor method and spatial autocorrelation analysis，estimating, and predicting the ecosystem service value and its trade-off synergy relationship in Xinzheng City from 1980 to 2030. RESULTS: The value of ecosystem services in Xinzheng City continues to decline, hydrological regulation and soil conservation are the most important ecosystem service functions, under the scenario of farmland protection, ESV shows a stable growth trend. The synergistic relationship between various functions of ESV is significant, the Shizu Mountain National Forest Park, Shuangji River and other high agglomeration areas, as well as the Airport Economic Zone and Nanlonghu Town and other low agglomeration areas, all show a synergistic relationship, with only a portion of the southern side of the main urban area of Xinzheng showing a balancing relationship. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings can scientifically identify the environmental advantages of ecological sustainable development in Xinzheng City, and transform them into development advantages, providing provide strong technical support for the spatial ecological restoration and ecological security pattern construction of metropolitan suburbs.