Proceedings of the International Conference on Industrial Design and Environmental Engineering, IDEE 2023, November 24–26, 2023, Zhengzhou, China

Research Article

Carbon Emission Prediction of Shanghai Municipality Based on Gray GM (1, 1) Modeling

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  • @INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.24-11-2023.2343460,
        author={Weiping  Zhou and Hongjun  Xiong},
        title={Carbon Emission Prediction of Shanghai Municipality  Based on Gray GM (1, 1) Modeling},
        proceedings={Proceedings of the International Conference on Industrial Design and Environmental Engineering, IDEE 2023, November 24--26, 2023, Zhengzhou, China},
        publisher={EAI},
        proceedings_a={IDEE},
        year={2024},
        month={2},
        keywords={gray forecasting kaya model carbon emissions shanghai},
        doi={10.4108/eai.24-11-2023.2343460}
    }
    
  • Weiping Zhou
    Hongjun Xiong
    Year: 2024
    Carbon Emission Prediction of Shanghai Municipality Based on Gray GM (1, 1) Modeling
    IDEE
    EAI
    DOI: 10.4108/eai.24-11-2023.2343460
Weiping Zhou1,*, Hongjun Xiong1
  • 1: Shanghai DianJi University
*Contact email: 2106553551@qq.com

Abstract

This paper establishes a Kaya mathematical model based on the carbon emission data of Shanghai between 2010 and 2020. Then we determine the indicators of population, GDP, value added of primary, secondary and tertiary industries and energy consumption through comparative analysis. Taking the historical data of 11 years as the actual values. The gray GM (1, 1) prediction model was used to predict the carbon emission caused by the changes of population, economy and energy consumption in Shanghai during 2021-2025. At the same time, the residuals and rank deviation of the model were examined. Finally, the simulation analysis of the prediction model was carried out by Matlab programming. And the results showed that the gray prediction model could well predict the carbon emissions of Shanghai in the coming years and achieved good experimental results.