Research Article
Carbon Emission Prediction of Shanghai Municipality Based on Gray GM (1, 1) Modeling
@INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.24-11-2023.2343460, author={Weiping Zhou and Hongjun Xiong}, title={Carbon Emission Prediction of Shanghai Municipality Based on Gray GM (1, 1) Modeling}, proceedings={Proceedings of the International Conference on Industrial Design and Environmental Engineering, IDEE 2023, November 24--26, 2023, Zhengzhou, China}, publisher={EAI}, proceedings_a={IDEE}, year={2024}, month={2}, keywords={gray forecasting kaya model carbon emissions shanghai}, doi={10.4108/eai.24-11-2023.2343460} }- Weiping Zhou
Hongjun Xiong
Year: 2024
Carbon Emission Prediction of Shanghai Municipality Based on Gray GM (1, 1) Modeling
IDEE
EAI
DOI: 10.4108/eai.24-11-2023.2343460
Abstract
This paper establishes a Kaya mathematical model based on the carbon emission data of Shanghai between 2010 and 2020. Then we determine the indicators of population, GDP, value added of primary, secondary and tertiary industries and energy consumption through comparative analysis. Taking the historical data of 11 years as the actual values. The gray GM (1, 1) prediction model was used to predict the carbon emission caused by the changes of population, economy and energy consumption in Shanghai during 2021-2025. At the same time, the residuals and rank deviation of the model were examined. Finally, the simulation analysis of the prediction model was carried out by Matlab programming. And the results showed that the gray prediction model could well predict the carbon emissions of Shanghai in the coming years and achieved good experimental results.