Analysis and Forecast of Shrimp Price Based on SARIMA Model

Junqi Wang; Xuecheng Wang

Proceedings of the 4th Management Science Informatization and Economic Innovation Development Conference, MSIEID 2022, December 9-11, 2022, Chongqing, China

Research Article

Analysis and Forecast of Shrimp Price Based on SARIMA Model

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@INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.9-12-2022.2327622,
    author={Junqi  Wang and Xuecheng  Wang},
    title={Analysis and Forecast of Shrimp Price Based on SARIMA Model},
    proceedings={Proceedings of the 4th Management Science Informatization and Economic Innovation Development Conference, MSIEID 2022, December 9-11, 2022, Chongqing, China},
    publisher={EAI},
    proceedings_a={MSIEID},
    year={2023},
    month={3},
    keywords={shrimp prices; cyclical price fluctuations; arima model; price forecasting},
    doi={10.4108/eai.9-12-2022.2327622}
}

Junqi Wang
Xuecheng Wang
Year: 2023
Analysis and Forecast of Shrimp Price Based on SARIMA Model
MSIEID
EAI
DOI: 10.4108/eai.9-12-2022.2327622

Junqi Wang¹, Xuecheng Wang¹^,*

1: North China University of Technology Beijing

*Contact email: wxc@outlook.com

Abstract

Since the price of shrimp in Ling Jiatang farmers' market in Jiangsu Province is obviously cyclical, this paper will use the monthly data of the price of shrimp in Ling Jiatang, Jiangsu Province from June 2009 to July 2021 to predict the monthly price of shrimp in the next two years based on the ARIMA(p, d, q)(P, D, Q)[12] model, and the results of the empirical analysis show that the model ARIMA(0, 1, 3)(1, 1, 1) [12] has the strongest fit and the highest accuracy, and can predict the monthly price of shrimp in the region for the next two years more accurately. Based on the model and to make relevant policy recommendations for stabilizing local prices.

Keywords: shrimp prices; cyclical price fluctuations; arima model; price forecasting

Published: 2023-03-14
Publisher: EAI

: http://dx.doi.org/10.4108/eai.9-12-2022.2327622