Research Article
Will Technological Progress Lead to the Rebound Effect of Agricultural Water: A Case Study of Groundwater Over-Exploitation in North China Plain
@INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.9-12-2022.2327596, author={Xinxin Li and Xia Zhou}, title={Will Technological Progress Lead to the Rebound Effect of Agricultural Water: A Case Study of Groundwater Over-Exploitation in North China Plain}, proceedings={Proceedings of the 4th Management Science Informatization and Economic Innovation Development Conference, MSIEID 2022, December 9-11, 2022, Chongqing, China}, publisher={EAI}, proceedings_a={MSIEID}, year={2023}, month={3}, keywords={agricultural water; rebound effect; north china plain; dea model; tapio decoupling model}, doi={10.4108/eai.9-12-2022.2327596} }- Xinxin Li
Xia Zhou
Year: 2023
Will Technological Progress Lead to the Rebound Effect of Agricultural Water: A Case Study of Groundwater Over-Exploitation in North China Plain
MSIEID
EAI
DOI: 10.4108/eai.9-12-2022.2327596
Abstract
Water-saving technology is an important measure to alleviate water shortage, but technical efficiency may lead to the increase of agricultural water by promoting eco-nomic development, resulting in the rebound effect of agricultural water. Taking the groundwater over-exploitation area in the North China Plain as an example, the DEA model was used to calculate the technical efficiency and calculate the rebound effect of agricultural water caused by technological progress. The Tapio decoupling model was used to estimate the decoupling state of agricultural water and agricultural output value. The results show that there is a rebound effect of agricultural water in the groundwater over-exploitation area of the North China Plain from 2010 to 2020, with an average value of 64.1%. Beijing has the most positive water-saving effect, while Tianjin, Shandong and Henan have a "backfire effect", and Hebei has a partial rebound. The relationship between agricultural water and the agricultural output value is in the strong and weak decoupling states, and there is a weak negative decoupling state somewhere. Based on this, optimize the agricultural input structure; carry out com-prehensive water-saving measures; pay attention to water-saving and stable production.