Research Article
The Relationship between Foreign Trade and Regional Economic Growth: Based on Cointegration - Granger Causality Test
@INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.9-12-2022.2327567, author={Man Xie and Xiangyuan Huang}, title={The Relationship between Foreign Trade and Regional Economic Growth: Based on Cointegration - Granger Causality Test}, proceedings={Proceedings of the 4th Management Science Informatization and Economic Innovation Development Conference, MSIEID 2022, December 9-11, 2022, Chongqing, China}, publisher={EAI}, proceedings_a={MSIEID}, year={2023}, month={3}, keywords={ordinary least square; foreign trade; regional economic development; granger; cointegration test}, doi={10.4108/eai.9-12-2022.2327567} }- Man Xie
Xiangyuan Huang
Year: 2023
The Relationship between Foreign Trade and Regional Economic Growth: Based on Cointegration - Granger Causality Test
MSIEID
EAI
DOI: 10.4108/eai.9-12-2022.2327567
Abstract
Under the background of economic globalization, development of foreign trade has a significant impact on the economic development of a country or region. This paper uses empirical analysis to explore relationship between foreign trade and regional economic growth of the Pearl River Delta region from 2010 to 2019. Correlation and Granger causality tests find that both export trade and import trade in the PRD have a significant positive effect on regional economic growth, but the promotion of export trade is more prominent, which is the Granger cause of economic growth. Ordinary Least Square method and cointegration test reveals a long-term equilibrium relationship is existed between GDP and total foreign trade and exports in the PRD, but there is no long-term equilibrium relationship with imports.