Research Article
The Impact of International Coal Prices on China's Macroeconomy in The Context of "Double Carbon"
@INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.8-12-2023.2344776, author={Xiao Yin}, title={The Impact of International Coal Prices on China's Macroeconomy in The Context of "Double Carbon"}, proceedings={Proceedings of the 5th Management Science Informatization and Economic Innovation Development Conference, MSIEID 2023, December 8--10, 2023, Guangzhou, China}, publisher={EAI}, proceedings_a={MSIEID}, year={2024}, month={4}, keywords={international coal price; economic growth; inflation; expectation; favar model}, doi={10.4108/eai.8-12-2023.2344776} }- Xiao Yin
Year: 2024
The Impact of International Coal Prices on China's Macroeconomy in The Context of "Double Carbon"
MSIEID
EAI
DOI: 10.4108/eai.8-12-2023.2344776
Abstract
Fossil energy is a bulk commodity that human beings rely on for survival and plays a pivotal role in a country's production, consumption, trade, and economic security.This paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism of international coal price on four aspects: economic growth, price level, consumer and investor expectations, and employment level; then constructs the FAVAR model based on 30 major economic indicators in China from 2001 to 2022 and uses impulse response to measure the direction and degree of response of each variable in the face of the international coal price shock, and finally uses variance Finally, the variance decomposition is used to analyze the contribution and association of the responses among the variables.