Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Big Data Economy and Digital Management, BDEDM 2023, January 6-8, 2023, Changsha, China

Research Article

Analysis of Exchange Rate Fluctuations between RMB and US Dollar

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  • @INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.6-1-2023.2330363,
        author={Zilin  Liu and Wentian  Wang and Chunlei  Zhao},
        title={Analysis of Exchange Rate Fluctuations between RMB and US Dollar},
        proceedings={Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Big Data Economy and Digital Management, BDEDM 2023, January 6-8, 2023, Changsha, China},
        publisher={EAI},
        proceedings_a={BDEDM},
        year={2023},
        month={6},
        keywords={exchange rate dollar big data},
        doi={10.4108/eai.6-1-2023.2330363}
    }
    
  • Zilin Liu
    Wentian Wang
    Chunlei Zhao
    Year: 2023
    Analysis of Exchange Rate Fluctuations between RMB and US Dollar
    BDEDM
    EAI
    DOI: 10.4108/eai.6-1-2023.2330363
Zilin Liu1,*, Wentian Wang2, Chunlei Zhao1
  • 1: Shandong University of Finance and Economics
  • 2: Anhui University
*Contact email: 737827170@qq.com

Abstract

Under the background of rapid development of big data and artificial intelligence technology, mining the information implied in time series data has become an important step for all industries to make decisions. At the same time, using big data for data analysis is a new requirement for economic work in the current rapid development of information technology, which is also an important way to achieve exchange rate analysis. At the 2022 Central Economic Work Conference, it was pointed out that the RMB exchange rate should be basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, and the financial stability guarantee system should be strengthened. This paper mainly takes the central parity rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar expressed by the direct pricing method from January 5, 2015 to January 31, 2021 as the research object. Through the GARCH model, it studies and analyzes the changes in the fluctuation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar exchange rate. The results show that there is a "herd effect" in people's expectations of exchange rate changes. At the same time, it finds that GARCH (2,1) and T-GARCH (1,1) predict the results significantly, and puts forward relevant suggestions and countermeasures.