Research Article
How Exchange Rate, Refinery Capacity, Consumption, and Petroleum Power Generation Respond to the Risk of Oil Import Shocks
@INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.31-3-2022.2320959, author={David Peterson}, title={How Exchange Rate, Refinery Capacity, Consumption, and Petroleum Power Generation Respond to the Risk of Oil Import Shocks}, proceedings={Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Contemporary Risk Studies, ICONIC-RS 2022, 31 March-1 April 2022, South Jakarta, DKI Jakarta, Indonesia}, publisher={EAI}, proceedings_a={ICONIC-RS}, year={2022}, month={8}, keywords={import petroleum var irf}, doi={10.4108/eai.31-3-2022.2320959} }- David Peterson
Year: 2022
How Exchange Rate, Refinery Capacity, Consumption, and Petroleum Power Generation Respond to the Risk of Oil Import Shocks
ICONIC-RS
EAI
DOI: 10.4108/eai.31-3-2022.2320959
Abstract
Indonesia's oil reserves and oil availability currently show a dwindling supply while consumption of oil has increased continuously. As consequence Indonesia import a lot of petroleum that always fluctuated. This study aimed to analyses how exchange rate, refinery capacity, consumption, and petroleum power generation respond to Indonesia’s crude oil import that is a risk of shock. The data were from British Petroleum and CEIC and used the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method and a test of Impulse Response Function (IRF). The results show that the exchange rate and power generation variables petroleum give a fluctuating response when there is a shock of oil imports, and vice versa. In contrast, the variables of refinery capacity and oil consumption give a negative response on oil import when there is a shock of oil imports.