Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Contemporary Risk Studies, ICONIC-RS 2022, 31 March-1 April 2022, South Jakarta, DKI Jakarta, Indonesia

Research Article

The Risk of Disorderly Energy Transition to Indonesian Oil & Gas Sector

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  • @INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.31-3-2022.2320668,
        author={Yohanes Handoko Aryanto},
        title={The Risk of Disorderly Energy Transition to Indonesian Oil \& Gas Sector},
        proceedings={Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Contemporary Risk Studies, ICONIC-RS 2022, 31 March-1 April 2022, South Jakarta, DKI Jakarta, Indonesia},
        publisher={EAI},
        proceedings_a={ICONIC-RS},
        year={2022},
        month={8},
        keywords={disorderly transition strategic risk scenario planning energy transition energy security},
        doi={10.4108/eai.31-3-2022.2320668}
    }
    
  • Yohanes Handoko Aryanto
    Year: 2022
    The Risk of Disorderly Energy Transition to Indonesian Oil & Gas Sector
    ICONIC-RS
    EAI
    DOI: 10.4108/eai.31-3-2022.2320668
Yohanes Handoko Aryanto1,*
  • 1: Pertamina Energy Institute, Jakarta, Indonesia
*Contact email: yohanes.handoko86@gmail.com

Abstract

Oil & gas sector currently faces increasing global commitment and stakeholders’ pressure for energy transition. However, oil demand is still increasing and is projected to surpass the pre-pandemic level. This situation, as part of disorderly transition, will pose many risks such as supply crunch and high energy price. Indonesia as net oil importer country is exposed to those risks especially in its net-zero roadmap. Moreover, Pertamina’s current position in Indonesian oil & gas sector increases concentration risk. This paper will analyze the risks of disorderly transition to Indonesian oil & gas sector based on scenario analysis, literature review, and benchmarking. This paper identifies several Indonesian energy policies that should be strengthened to mitigate the risks of disorderly transition. This paper also demonstrates that scenario analysis can be utilized by the government to stress tests Indonesian net-zero roadmap as the risks of energy transition tend to be overlooked in the roadmap.