Proceedings of the 3rd Sriwijaya International Conference on Basic and Applied Sciences, SICBAS 2023, November 3, 2023, Palembang, Indonesia

Research Article

Forecasting of Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Price using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Method

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  • @INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.3-11-2023.2347905,
        author={Nella  Cornelya and Dian  Cahyawati and Ning  Eliyati and Robinson  Sitepu and Eka  Susanti and Novi Rustiana Dewi and Putra Bahtera Jaya Bangun},
        title={Forecasting of Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Price using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Method},
        proceedings={Proceedings of the 3rd Sriwijaya International Conference on Basic and Applied Sciences, SICBAS 2023, November 3, 2023, Palembang, Indonesia},
        publisher={EAI},
        proceedings_a={SICBAS},
        year={2024},
        month={8},
        keywords={arima bitcoin cryptocurrency forecasting},
        doi={10.4108/eai.3-11-2023.2347905}
    }
    
  • Nella Cornelya
    Dian Cahyawati
    Ning Eliyati
    Robinson Sitepu
    Eka Susanti
    Novi Rustiana Dewi
    Putra Bahtera Jaya Bangun
    Year: 2024
    Forecasting of Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Price using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Method
    SICBAS
    EAI
    DOI: 10.4108/eai.3-11-2023.2347905
Nella Cornelya1,*, Dian Cahyawati1, Ning Eliyati1, Robinson Sitepu1, Eka Susanti1, Novi Rustiana Dewi1, Putra Bahtera Jaya Bangun2
  • 1: Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Sriwijaya
  • 2: Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Sriwijaya University
*Contact email: 08011282025064@student.unsri.ac.id

Abstract

Bitcoin is a type of cryptocurrency that has the largest market capitalization as a digital investment tool. Bitcoin prices often fluctuate, making it necessary to forecast in order to help investors in predicting the profit of their digital investment. One of the methods that can be used for predicting the price of Bitcoin based on the daily preices is Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The aim of this research is to create the best ARIMA model and predict the current price of Bitcoin. The data used in this research is secondary data obtained from websites supervised by the Commodity Futures Trading Supervisory Agency starting from January 1, 2023 to September 30, 2023. The research results show that the ARIMA model (0,2,1) provides a MAPE value of 3.17%, which means the ARIMA model's forecasting ability is very good.