Research on the Growth Mechanism of Express Delivery Industry Based on System Dynamics

In the past few years, the express delivery industry has experienced a decrease in its previously fast growth rate. To better understand the reasons behind this slowdown, this research paper researches the interconnections between the key entities in the express delivery industry using a causality diagram. Additionally, it explores the factors that drive the industry's growth and those that limit it, based on the industry's historical development. Using system dynamics, a model is constructed and validated. The study reveals that the factors contributing to growth in the express delivery industry include advancements in express business and technological innovation, the influence of e-commerce, policy support and logistics infrastructure. On the other hand, the factors that hinder growth in the industry include a shortage of human resources, excessive dependence on e-commerce, and insufficient infrastructure. Finally, the paper identifies and analyzes the key factors for modeling purposes, and the simulation results confirm that these selected factors significantly affect the development of the express delivery industry.