Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Economic Management and Big Data Applications, ICEMBDA 2023, October 27–29, 2023, Tianjin, China

Research Article

Research on Public Opinion of "Double Carbon" Policy and Spillover Effect of Futures Index of Three Major Sectors——Evidence from China

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  • @INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.27-10-2023.2341939,
        author={Binhong  Wu and Yuting  Ding and Binrui  Dong and Bangsheng  Xie},
        title={Research on Public Opinion of "Double Carbon" Policy and Spillover Effect of Futures Index of Three Major Sectors------Evidence from China},
        proceedings={Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Economic Management and Big Data Applications, ICEMBDA 2023, October 27--29, 2023, Tianjin, China},
        publisher={EAI},
        proceedings_a={ICEMBDA},
        year={2024},
        month={1},
        keywords={double carbon policy;futures price;spillover effect;public opinion index; var-bekk(dcc)-garch(1 1)},
        doi={10.4108/eai.27-10-2023.2341939}
    }
    
  • Binhong Wu
    Yuting Ding
    Binrui Dong
    Bangsheng Xie
    Year: 2024
    Research on Public Opinion of "Double Carbon" Policy and Spillover Effect of Futures Index of Three Major Sectors——Evidence from China
    ICEMBDA
    EAI
    DOI: 10.4108/eai.27-10-2023.2341939
Binhong Wu1, Yuting Ding1, Binrui Dong1, Bangsheng Xie1,*
  • 1: Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University
*Contact email: xbs2002@163.com

Abstract

To supplement the empirical research on the impact of "double carbon" policy on social economy from the perspective of online public opinion, the "double carbon" policy public opinion index is constructed with the help of search engine Baidu and the VAR-BEKK(DCC)-GARCH(1,1)model is used to scientifically quantify the spillover effect of "double carbon" policy public opinion and metal, chemical and agricultural futures index. The results show that there are one-way mean spillovers and volatility spillovers on the metal index and agricultural index of the "double carbon" policy public opinion index, and the impact of the "double carbon" policy public opinion has a short-term amplification effect, but the long-term effect is not significant. There are one-way mean spillovers and two-way volatility spillovers between the energy index and the public opinion index of the "two-carbon" policy, indicating that the energy index is most closely related to the public opinion of the "double carbon" policy, and it has strong pricing power. At the same time, it has the function of transmitting public opinion signals to traders. Based on the above findings, from the two levels of government and enterprise, suggestions are put forward, such as "stability first" macro policy, avoiding "sports" carbon reduction, and doing a good job of public opinion monitoring related to "double carbon" policy, and using it to monitor and predict the changes of related indexes.