Research on the Forecast of NEV Credit Price Based on the Law of Value

The Passenger Cars Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulation set up "CAFC" and "NEV" credit respectively for the assessment of energy saving of fuel-powered vehicles and development of new energy vehicles. The enterprises will have credit surplus if they meet the standards, or have credit deficit if they fail to do so. The industry has now completed five credit tradings, during which enterprises with credit surplus have gained considerable profits, while those with credit deficit have paid a lot of costs. It is worth noting that the credit prices fluctuated greatly since the beginning of the credit trading, with a difference of more than 30 times between the lowest and highest price of the credit tradings, causing many difficulties to the production plan and product planning of enterprises. This paper analyzes the key factors affecting the NEV credit price from the underlying logic of the formation of NEV credit, and builds a forecast model for the NEV credit price based on the law of value to provide the credit price forecast for the industry more reasonably and support the product planning and policy implementation evaluation of enterprises to a certain extent.