Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Mathematical Statistics and Economic Analysis, MSEA 2023, May 26–28, 2023, Nanjing, China

Research Article

Based on Evergrande Group's Debt Default Case Analysis——Constructing Multiple Regression Model to Explore the Debt Paying Ability of Real Estate Enterprises with High Debt Default Risk

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  • @INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.26-5-2023.2334283,
        author={Weidong  He},
        title={Based on Evergrande Group's Debt Default Case Analysis------Constructing Multiple Regression Model to Explore the Debt Paying Ability of Real Estate Enterprises with High Debt Default Risk},
        proceedings={Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Mathematical Statistics and Economic Analysis, MSEA 2023, May 26--28, 2023, Nanjing, China},
        publisher={EAI},
        proceedings_a={MSEA},
        year={2023},
        month={7},
        keywords={debt default risk; real estate enterprises; solvency; multiple regression; asset securit-ization},
        doi={10.4108/eai.26-5-2023.2334283}
    }
    
  • Weidong He
    Year: 2023
    Based on Evergrande Group's Debt Default Case Analysis——Constructing Multiple Regression Model to Explore the Debt Paying Ability of Real Estate Enterprises with High Debt Default Risk
    MSEA
    EAI
    DOI: 10.4108/eai.26-5-2023.2334283
Weidong He1,*
  • 1: Minzu University of China
*Contact email: 2456362783@qq.com

Abstract

In recent years, China's domestic real estate market is facing the deterioration of the financing environment, the pressure of capital chain rupture is increasing, and a large number of debt risks are exposed after experiencing rapid development. This paper analyzes the debt default risk and solvency of real estate enterprises and its repre-sentative indicator ’current ratio’ was analyzed by multiple regression modeling, as well as their internal and external influencing factors, which object is Evergrande Real Estate Group which has defaulted on its debts. It is found that there are few studies on the influencing factors of real estate enterprises' solvency and the treatment after debt default. Then by studying the above significant factors separately, we found three important business matters that affect the solvency. Finally, three targeted counter-measures are proposed through those. And on this basis, combined with asset securiti-zation, three feasible schemes are proposed, which through issuing convertible bond options, issuing REITs trust funds and issuing income vouchers for land entity asset securitization. It is of theoretical and practical significance to take Evergrande Group as a typical case of a high debt default real estate enterprise to study its solvency.