Research Article
Epidemic Transmission Characteristics, Epidemic Risk Assessment, Prevention and Control in the Post-Epidemic Era: Methods and Demonstration
@INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.26-5-2023.2334241, author={Hao Chang}, title={Epidemic Transmission Characteristics, Epidemic Risk Assessment, Prevention and Control in the Post-Epidemic Era: Methods and Demonstration}, proceedings={Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Mathematical Statistics and Economic Analysis, MSEA 2023, May 26--28, 2023, Nanjing, China}, publisher={EAI}, proceedings_a={MSEA}, year={2023}, month={7}, keywords={the spread of the epidemic logistic model seir model social research cloud model}, doi={10.4108/eai.26-5-2023.2334241} }- Hao Chang
Year: 2023
Epidemic Transmission Characteristics, Epidemic Risk Assessment, Prevention and Control in the Post-Epidemic Era: Methods and Demonstration
MSEA
EAI
DOI: 10.4108/eai.26-5-2023.2334241
Abstract
The author selected the epidemic data of Beijing in the first half year of 2022 and studied the transmission characteristics of the epidemic through the Logistic model. It was found that the model was well fitted according to the goodness of fit, but from the calculation results of the data, there was a large deviation. Subsequently, the author used the modified SEIR model for analysis. According to the results of the current epidemic in Beijing, if the infection rate β<0.07 and daily contact r<11 can be controlled effectively, the spread of the epidemic can be controlled effectively. Then, the author selected a region for empirical analysis, and obtained information about the construction index by issuing questionnaires and field research. Subsequently, the author analyzed the above survey results through the cloud model, and the total epidemic prevention and control assessment results were between low risk and medium risk. Finally, the above research results were summarized, and conclusions and suggestions were given, including optimizing the policy duration and making dynamic adjustments according to the epidemic situation.