Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Mathematical Statistics and Economic Analysis, MSEA 2024, May 24–26, 2024, Jinan, China

Research Article

Analysis of Low-Carbon Electricity Investment Opportunities Based on the Supply Chain

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  • @INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.24-5-2024.2350153,
        author={Lichong  Cui and Huayu  Chu and Yanyang  Fu and Enguang  Chen and Yuqing  Sun},
        title={Analysis of Low-Carbon Electricity Investment Opportunities Based on the Supply Chain},
        proceedings={Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Mathematical Statistics and Economic Analysis, MSEA 2024, May 24--26, 2024, Jinan, China},
        publisher={EAI},
        proceedings_a={MSEA},
        year={2024},
        month={10},
        keywords={power supply chain; low-carbon technology; option game; optimal investment timing},
        doi={10.4108/eai.24-5-2024.2350153}
    }
    
  • Lichong Cui
    Huayu Chu
    Yanyang Fu
    Enguang Chen
    Yuqing Sun
    Year: 2024
    Analysis of Low-Carbon Electricity Investment Opportunities Based on the Supply Chain
    MSEA
    EAI
    DOI: 10.4108/eai.24-5-2024.2350153
Lichong Cui1,*, Huayu Chu1, Yanyang Fu1, Enguang Chen1, Yuqing Sun2
  • 1: State Grid Hebei Electric Power Co., Ltd.
  • 2: Beijing CHINA-POWER INFORMATION Technology Co., Ltd.
*Contact email: 183150@qq.com

Abstract

In the context of the electricity market and carbon trading market, considering the uncertainty of carbon trading prices, this study utilizes real options theory to calculate the option value of low-carbon technology investment timing and establishes a decision-making model for the optimal timing of low-carbon investments for a single enterprise. Based on this, a two-tier supply chain model for investing in low-carbon technology by power generation companies and grid companies is constructed. The study employs an option game approach to investigate the optimal investment timing for low-carbon technology in the power supply chain. The influencing factors of the optimal investment timing are analyzed through a case study. The results indicate that government low-carbon subsidy coefficients, carbon trading price volatility, and carbon emission reduction levels impact the threshold for low-carbon technology investment. Power companies should comprehensively consider the influence of various factors and scientifically choose the optimal investment timing. Governments should establish reasonable low-carbon subsidy coefficients to encourage power companies to invest in low-carbon technology, achieving a harmonious development of the economy and the environment.