Research Article
Forecasting the Development of New Energy Electric Vehicles in China Based on ARIMA Time Series Models
@INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.24-5-2024.2350126, author={Zhenzi Jin and Mengyun Chen and Tongxuan Zhao and Yutong Pan and Ye Tao and Yizhe Deng and Xiaoling Qin}, title={Forecasting the Development of New Energy Electric Vehicles in China Based on ARIMA Time Series Models}, proceedings={Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Mathematical Statistics and Economic Analysis, MSEA 2024, May 24--26, 2024, Jinan, China}, publisher={EAI}, proceedings_a={MSEA}, year={2024}, month={10}, keywords={new energy electric vehicle arima nonlinear fitting development trend}, doi={10.4108/eai.24-5-2024.2350126} }- Zhenzi Jin
Mengyun Chen
Tongxuan Zhao
Yutong Pan
Ye Tao
Yizhe Deng
Xiaoling Qin
Year: 2024
Forecasting the Development of New Energy Electric Vehicles in China Based on ARIMA Time Series Models
MSEA
EAI
DOI: 10.4108/eai.24-5-2024.2350126
Abstract
With the Chinese government's strong support and promotion of the new energy electric vehicle industry since 2011, this field has made remarkable progress and become another national landmark industry after the ‘Chinese high-speed railway’. This study utilizes the ARIMA time-series forecasting model for quantitative analysis in order to accurately forecast the future development of new energy electric vehicles in China and to evaluate the effect of foreign policies on the country's industry.By identifying the key influencing factors on the sales of new energy electric vehicles, we focus on the core indicators such as average battery energy density, market share and number of charging piles, and normalise them. Based on these processed data, this study constructs a prediction model and applies ARIMA with nonlinear fitting method [1] for effective solution, with a view to providing decision support for policy makers and promoting the sustainable and healthy development of the industry.