Navigating the Paradox of Digitalization: A Multidimensional Analysis of the Digital Economy in the Greater Bay Area

This study delves into the pattern of digital economy development in the Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Greater Bay Area, and provides detailed forecasts of the development trend of the digital economy index of each prefecture-level city in the next three years. Drawing on authoritative government statistics, this study adopts a multidimensional analytical framework that combines economic indicators and digital economy indexes. Under a robust theoretical framework, this study applies stepwise regression analysis and ARIMA forecasting, and finds that GDP per capita and the tertiary industry have a significant positive impact on economic growth, while the digital economy index exhibits an unexpected negative impact. The innovation lies in combining the prediction model with regional stratification, revealing differences that require strategic policy interventions to achieve balanced development of the digital economy. Future research directions aim to address emerging socio-economic and policy challenges in the digital era.