Proceedings of the International Conference on Sustainable Engineering, Infrastructure and Development, ICO-SEID 2022, 23-24 November 2022, Jakarta, Indonesia

Research Article

Probabilistic Analysis of Tsunami Caused by The Java Megathrust Active Fault: A Case Study of Jakarta, Indonesia

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  • @INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.23-11-2022.2341755,
        author={Rafi Ramadhani Abdillah and Teuku Muhammad Rasyif},
        title={Probabilistic Analysis of Tsunami Caused by The Java Megathrust Active Fault: A Case Study of Jakarta, Indonesia },
        proceedings={Proceedings of the International Conference on Sustainable Engineering, Infrastructure and Development, ICO-SEID 2022, 23-24 November 2022, Jakarta, Indonesia},
        publisher={EAI},
        proceedings_a={ICO-SEID},
        year={2023},
        month={12},
        keywords={ring of fire tsunami comcot shallow water equation re-period},
        doi={10.4108/eai.23-11-2022.2341755}
    }
    
  • Rafi Ramadhani Abdillah
    Teuku Muhammad Rasyif
    Year: 2023
    Probabilistic Analysis of Tsunami Caused by The Java Megathrust Active Fault: A Case Study of Jakarta, Indonesia
    ICO-SEID
    EAI
    DOI: 10.4108/eai.23-11-2022.2341755
Rafi Ramadhani Abdillah1,*, Teuku Muhammad Rasyif1
  • 1: Universitas Pertamina, Indonesia
*Contact email: Rafiramadhani34@gmail.com

Abstract

Indonesia is located on 3 main plates of the world, so it is known as the ring of fire area because of the potential for volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. This study aims to determine the analysis of the probability of the occurrence of tsunami waves generated on the coast of the Jakarta area. The research process was carried out by simulating tsunami waves using the Cornel Multigrid Coupled Tsunami (COMCOT) program and numerical modeling Shallow Water Equation (SWE). The results of this study are the probability obtained based on PTHA calculations with the largest percentage at the 7th location point for the 2000 years return period, namely 42.01% and 1.55% for the possibility of occurring with 0.5 meters and 3 meters, potential height The tsunami that reached the Jakarta area was 1.24 meters in the Muara Angke area. This uneven distribution was continued to create 7 points near the coast of Jakarta which have strategic areas with the results of location point 1 until 7, namely 1, 04 m; 1.12 m; 1.12 m; 1.19 m; 1.31 m; 1.48 m; and 1.78 m and the furthest distance reached by the tsunami was 32.4 meters in the Muara Angke area.