Proceedings of the 3rd Economics and Business International Conference, EBIC 2022, 22 September 2022, Medan, North Sumatera, Indonesia

Research Article

The Influence of Fluctuations in International Rice Prices, Exchange Rate, and World Oil Prices on Rice Prices in Indonesia

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  • @INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.22-9-2022.2337056,
        author={Muhammad Ilham Riyadh and Syaad  Afifuddin and Ramli  Ramli and Rahmanta  Rahmanta},
        title={The Influence of Fluctuations in International Rice Prices, Exchange Rate, and World Oil Prices on Rice Prices in Indonesia},
        proceedings={Proceedings of the 3rd Economics and Business International Conference, EBIC 2022, 22 September 2022, Medan, North Sumatera, Indonesia},
        publisher={EAI},
        proceedings_a={EBIC},
        year={2024},
        month={4},
        keywords={world oil world rice exchange rate rice price var},
        doi={10.4108/eai.22-9-2022.2337056}
    }
    
  • Muhammad Ilham Riyadh
    Syaad Afifuddin
    Ramli Ramli
    Rahmanta Rahmanta
    Year: 2024
    The Influence of Fluctuations in International Rice Prices, Exchange Rate, and World Oil Prices on Rice Prices in Indonesia
    EBIC
    EAI
    DOI: 10.4108/eai.22-9-2022.2337056
Muhammad Ilham Riyadh1,*, Syaad Afifuddin2, Ramli Ramli1, Rahmanta Rahmanta1
  • 1: Universitas Islam Sumatera Utara
  • 2: Universitas Medan Area
*Contact email: ilham_riyadh@fp.uisu.ac.id

Abstract

The increase that will have an impact on controlling economic development is influenced by changes in the global market for rice, oil and financial instruments. This study aims to provide an overview of how changes in global rice prices, world oil prices, and exchange rates have an impact on rice prices in Indonesia. In the case of the shock of the rice price variable in Indonesia, it can be seen how the global rice price reacts, the rupiah exchange rate, and other factors. This shows the extent to which changes in the prices of rice, rupiah and crude oil are all related. The secondary time series data used ranged from 1980 to 2019. Using the VAR form, the relationship between the variables of world rice prices, rupiah exchange rates, and world oil prices was investigated. In contrast to international oil prices and global rice prices, the exchange rate has a positive and quite large impact on rice prices. On the other hand, the findings of the Forecast Error Variance Decompotition show that local rice prices are strongly influenced by the exchange rate compared to world oil prices. This is due to exchange rate fluctuations causing a significant decline in rice prices compared to world oil prices and world rice prices. With respect to global rice prices.