Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Statistics and Analytics, ICSA 2019, 2-3 August 2019, Bogor, Indonesia

Research Article

Daily Rainfall Prediction using Two-Stage Modeling with Boosting Classification on Statistical Downscaling

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  • @INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.2-8-2019.2290524,
        author={Agung Satrio  Wicaksono and Hari  Wijayanto and Agus Mohamad  Soleh},
        title={Daily Rainfall Prediction using Two-Stage Modeling with Boosting Classification on Statistical Downscaling},
        proceedings={Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Statistics and Analytics, ICSA 2019, 2-3 August 2019, Bogor, Indonesia},
        publisher={EAI},
        proceedings_a={ICSA},
        year={2020},
        month={1},
        keywords={boosting plsr rmsep statistical downscaling},
        doi={10.4108/eai.2-8-2019.2290524}
    }
    
  • Agung Satrio Wicaksono
    Hari Wijayanto
    Agus Mohamad Soleh
    Year: 2020
    Daily Rainfall Prediction using Two-Stage Modeling with Boosting Classification on Statistical Downscaling
    ICSA
    EAI
    DOI: 10.4108/eai.2-8-2019.2290524
Agung Satrio Wicaksono1,*, Hari Wijayanto1, Agus Mohamad Soleh1
  • 1: Department of Statistics, IPB University, Bogor, 42176, Indonesia
*Contact email: agung_satriowicaksono@apps.ipb.ac.id

Abstract

Statistical Downscaling (SD) techniques can be used to predict local rainfall data by using the General Circulation Model (GCM) output data as large-scale global data. Previous research concluded that SD techniques in two-stage modeling with classification using monthly rainfall data can reduce errors in one-stage modeling with Partial Least Square Regression (PLSR). In this study, SD techniques in two-stage modeling with classification are used to predict daily rainfall data. First, the robustness of Boosting method in classification was used to determine the occurrence of rainfall in a day. Second, the PLSR method was used to predict amount of rainfall in rainy days predicted by Boosting method. The capability of the model is tested in four stations all located in West Java Province. Results obtained from 5-fold Cross Validation with 2 repeats clearly show that the RMSEP value will be decrease if the classification accuracy value increase.