Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Quran and Hadith Studies Information Technology and Media in Conjunction with the 1st International Conference on Islam, Science and Technology, ICONQUHAS & ICONIST, Bandung, October 2-4, 2018, Indonesia

Research Article

Settlement Growth Prediction Using Celullar Automata Model (Case study Lowokwaru District, Malang City)

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  • @INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.2-10-2018.2295498,
        author={Januar Dwi Harisandy and Gunawan  Prayitno and Wahid  Hasyim},
        title={Settlement Growth Prediction Using Celullar Automata Model (Case study Lowokwaru District, Malang City)},
        proceedings={Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Quran and Hadith Studies Information Technology and Media in Conjunction with the 1st International Conference on Islam, Science and Technology,  ICONQUHAS \& ICONIST, Bandung, October 2-4, 2018, Indonesia},
        publisher={EAI},
        proceedings_a={ICONQUHAS},
        year={2020},
        month={5},
        keywords={land use change cellular automata},
        doi={10.4108/eai.2-10-2018.2295498}
    }
    
  • Januar Dwi Harisandy
    Gunawan Prayitno
    Wahid Hasyim
    Year: 2020
    Settlement Growth Prediction Using Celullar Automata Model (Case study Lowokwaru District, Malang City)
    ICONQUHAS
    EAI
    DOI: 10.4108/eai.2-10-2018.2295498
Januar Dwi Harisandy1,*, Gunawan Prayitno1, Wahid Hasyim1
  • 1: Brawijaya University, Faculty of Engineering, Malang, Indonesia
*Contact email: januardhs@gmail.com

Abstract

Land use change in urban areas is a necessity. Populations increase both naturally (birth and death) and unnatural (migration) encourages increasing demand for land. The city of Malang, one of the major cities of East Java province, is also facing the problem of land use change. The attraction of Malang as a major city and educational city in East Java could potentially drive change in land use, from agriculture to non agriculture, specifically to the use of settlements. From 2010 to 2015, the population grew by 7.7% and farmland decrease by 23%. The Lowokwaru district was chosen as part of this study because several universities are located in this district, so the demand for land for settlement is higher than in the other districts. The research objective is to predict the growth potential for settlement in 2035 using cellular automata by Landusesim application. The analysis shows that the planned settlement demand for 2035 is 1,433.62 hectares, while the available area is 682.15 hectares (sum of agricultural land and vacant land). On the basis of this forecast, if the policy is not implemented, Lowokwaru District of Malang City will not be able to provide land by 2035. The analysis show that the available land can only satisfy 47.58% total land demand.