Research Article
Forecasting the Comparisons Between Hangseng and Nikkei Index Prices in the Context of Economic Recession in 2023
@INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.18-12-2023.2349752, author={Ilyas Alva Nur and Aqeela Jenifer Thurai and Anita Maharani}, title={Forecasting the Comparisons Between Hangseng and Nikkei Index Prices in the Context of Economic Recession in 2023}, proceedings={Proceedings of the 1st UHAMKA International Conference on Economics and Business, UHICEB 2023, 18-19 December 2023, Jakarta, Indonesia}, publisher={EAI}, proceedings_a={UHICEB}, year={2024}, month={12}, keywords={forecasting index prices economic recession}, doi={10.4108/eai.18-12-2023.2349752} }- Ilyas Alva Nur
Aqeela Jenifer Thurai
Anita Maharani
Year: 2024
Forecasting the Comparisons Between Hangseng and Nikkei Index Prices in the Context of Economic Recession in 2023
UHICEB
EAI
DOI: 10.4108/eai.18-12-2023.2349752
Abstract
The purpose of writing this article is to identify the best model for predicting Index price movements and also predicting the risks in investing in the Hang Seng and Nikkei Index. Stock market data from the Hangseng Index and the Nikkei Index were used in this study, which spanned the years 2018 to 2022. The data was then separated into five seasons of 12 months each. Forecasting is accomplished using Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Regression. Moving Average uses time series data to anticipate the price of the Hangseng and Nikkei Index values in the future by connecting the price of the Index values in the previous year and the price of the Index values in the future. In addition, Regression is used in this study to identify emissions in time series, which might impact estimations and forecasts using Exponential Smoothing. Based on the results of prediction calculations using the Moving Average method, it can be seen that the movement of the last five years from the 2018-2022 period, the Hang Seng Index trend is decreasing or Bearish and the Nikkei Index trend is increasing or Bullish. Researchers propose investing in the Hangseng Index based on this forecast data since rising interest rates affect declining stock values. As a result, the Hangseng index is declining, and it is a good time to buy this index. There is no need to be concerned about a drop in the Hangseng index share price since it will increase gradually.
