Research Article
Forecast of the Demand of State-Owned Construction Land of 2021-2035 Based on Multiple Linear Regression Model
@INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.18-11-2022.2327166, author={Wenchao Liu and Wenhua Guo and Fei Xiao and Jianying Zeng and Minmin Li and Yong Fan}, title={Forecast of the Demand of State-Owned Construction Land of 2021-2035 Based on Multiple Linear Regression Model}, proceedings={Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Economic Management and Model Engineering, ICEMME 2022, November 18-20, 2022, Nanjing, China}, publisher={EAI}, proceedings_a={ICEMME}, year={2023}, month={2}, keywords={state-owned construction land supply multiple linear regression model forecast model china}, doi={10.4108/eai.18-11-2022.2327166} }- Wenchao Liu
Wenhua Guo
Fei Xiao
Jianying Zeng
Minmin Li
Yong Fan
Year: 2023
Forecast of the Demand of State-Owned Construction Land of 2021-2035 Based on Multiple Linear Regression Model
ICEMME
EAI
DOI: 10.4108/eai.18-11-2022.2327166
Abstract
Providing a reasonable amount of construction land to match the economic development and urban population expansion is an important responsibility faced by the land administration department. There are relatively few studies that provide long-term holistic quantitative analysis and future exploration of the construction land supply at the national level. In this paper, the screening of indicators is achieved through stepwise regression, and then a mathematical model based on linear regression is constructed. After verification, this model can accurately fit the relationship between the supply of state-owned construction land, the increase of urban population and the GDP growth from 2001 to 2020 in China, and can be used to forecast the scale of state-owned construction land demand from 2021 to 2035. The prediction results reveal that the total state-owned construction land demand from 2021 to 2035 is 8.41 million hectares. By 2035, the annual demand for construction land will be approximately 388,000 hectares, which is 60% of the 2020 supply. The forecast results can be a reference for the state-owned construction land supply plan for the next 15 years.