Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Economic Management and Model Engineering, ICEMME 2022, November 18-20, 2022, Nanjing, China

Research Article

Analysis on the Stock Market Prospect of New Energy Vehicle Industry --Taking NIO, XPEV and LI as Examples

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  • @INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.18-11-2022.2326898,
        author={Ziyi  Wang and Yuanliang  Zhao and Zhiye  Zhao},
        title={Analysis on the Stock Market Prospect of New Energy Vehicle Industry --Taking NIO, XPEV and LI as Examples},
        proceedings={Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Economic Management and Model Engineering, ICEMME 2022, November 18-20, 2022, Nanjing, China},
        publisher={EAI},
        proceedings_a={ICEMME},
        year={2023},
        month={2},
        keywords={new energy vehicle stock; risk; return; capm; mean-cvar; arima},
        doi={10.4108/eai.18-11-2022.2326898}
    }
    
  • Ziyi Wang
    Yuanliang Zhao
    Zhiye Zhao
    Year: 2023
    Analysis on the Stock Market Prospect of New Energy Vehicle Industry --Taking NIO, XPEV and LI as Examples
    ICEMME
    EAI
    DOI: 10.4108/eai.18-11-2022.2326898
Ziyi Wang1,*, Yuanliang Zhao2, Zhiye Zhao3
  • 1: Department of Pure Mathematics, University of Waterloo
  • 2: Department of Statistics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
  • 3: Department of Economics, University of Toronto
*Contact email: z839wang@uwaterloo.ca

Abstract

This article aims to evaluate the prospect of a new energy vehicle manufacturing stock market. We evaluated the expected risk and expected return of the three new energy vehicle companies through the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). First, the Capital Asset Pricing Model conveys that the new energy vehicle companies are in a period earning negatively to the market. The other aspect is based on the results of CVaR. By stating the mean-CVaR model to have side-by-side comparisons among returns of three stocks, we find that NIO's stock is the worthiest one to invest among the three stocks. Finally, based on forecasting of one-month period each-day returns of three stocks, we find that both NIO and LI's stocks are expected to have a positive each-day return and worthy of investing. The results of the article giving investors suggestions on investing in new energy vehicle companies. This article's conclusion provides people who hope to invest in the new energy vehicle companies' stocks advice and state theory foundations for advanced research of constructing portfolios in new energy vehicle companies' stock market.