Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Economic Management and Model Engineering, ICEMME 2022, November 18-20, 2022, Nanjing, China

Research Article

Research of the Impact of COVID-19 on the Retail and Stock Market based on Large Scale Retail and Sales Data Analysis

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  • @INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.18-11-2022.2326864,
        author={Yiming  Wei},
        title={Research of the Impact of COVID-19 on the Retail and Stock Market based on Large Scale Retail and Sales Data Analysis},
        proceedings={Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Economic Management and Model Engineering, ICEMME 2022, November 18-20, 2022, Nanjing, China},
        publisher={EAI},
        proceedings_a={ICEMME},
        year={2023},
        month={2},
        keywords={behavioural finance; retail sales index; ftse 100; autocorrelation; ljung-box test; google trends; coronavirus search volumn index; efficient market hypothesis; granger causality},
        doi={10.4108/eai.18-11-2022.2326864}
    }
    
  • Yiming Wei
    Year: 2023
    Research of the Impact of COVID-19 on the Retail and Stock Market based on Large Scale Retail and Sales Data Analysis
    ICEMME
    EAI
    DOI: 10.4108/eai.18-11-2022.2326864
Yiming Wei1,*
  • 1: Xi’an Kang Qiao School
*Contact email: wyiming2022@163.com

Abstract

The COVID-19 global outbreak has been proven to be one of the most devastating events in human history. This article exams its impact on the UK, particularly the retail sales and stock markets. The classical theory of Efficient Market Hypothesis is overviewed and its validity and reliability of explaining the market behaviour is investigated. A novel methodology based on behavioural finance utilising Google Trends service is advocated as a superior mechanism to explicate the UK stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic instead of the traditional financial theory. The innovative approach is assessed by the Granger causality and is found to be statistically efficient. The practical way of constructing and validating the behavioural index is discussed in detail.