Research Article
Portfolio Research Combined with Epidemic Changes
@INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.18-11-2022.2326739, author={Peiwen Guo and Sixian Wang and Yuting Yang}, title={Portfolio Research Combined with Epidemic Changes}, proceedings={Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Economic Management and Model Engineering, ICEMME 2022, November 18-20, 2022, Nanjing, China}, publisher={EAI}, proceedings_a={ICEMME}, year={2023}, month={2}, keywords={portfolio; correlation; forecasting; return; covid-19 (key words)}, doi={10.4108/eai.18-11-2022.2326739} }- Peiwen Guo
Sixian Wang
Yuting Yang
Year: 2023
Portfolio Research Combined with Epidemic Changes
ICEMME
EAI
DOI: 10.4108/eai.18-11-2022.2326739
Abstract
This study mainly used some mathematical methods to calculate how to invest a portfolio at the lowest risk before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19, and gave people some suggestions on how to invest under the special situation of the epidemic. To form a reasonable portfolio, we selected 4 stocks in different industries: Walmart, Facebook, Netflix, and Disney, and analyze the trend of every single stock and the correlation between the two stocks. And we chose a weighted moving average model to predict the trend of stocks. Finally, we use the combination variance to simulate the risk. After the outbreak of the COVID-19, the correlation of most stocks had increased, and the risk had also increased. Only the correlation between Disney and Walmart decreased while the other correlations increased. Moreover, Netflix had the highest return rate among the four stocks. Combined with the analysis, we concluded that investors can always invest more in Netflix no matter which periods are considered and increase the investment weight of Walmart after COVID-19. This suggests that specific events such as the COVID-19 outbreak impact investors' portfolio choices.