Proceedings of the First International Conference on Science, Engineering and Technology Practices for Sustainable Development, ICSETPSD 2023, 17th-18th November 2023, Coimbatore, Tamilnadu, India

Research Article

Research on the Impacts of Different Model Parameters on the Trends of Infectious Diseases Based on Improved SEIR Model

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  • @INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.17-11-2023.2342809,
        author={Zhen  Chen and Shaocheng  Song},
        title={Research on the Impacts of Different Model Parameters on the Trends of Infectious Diseases Based on Improved SEIR Model},
        proceedings={Proceedings of the First International Conference on Science, Engineering and Technology Practices for Sustainable Development, ICSETPSD 2023, 17th-18th November 2023, Coimbatore, Tamilnadu, India},
        publisher={EAI},
        proceedings_a={ICSETPSD},
        year={2024},
        month={1},
        keywords={improved seir model parameter settings intensities of prevention and control measures trends comparison},
        doi={10.4108/eai.17-11-2023.2342809}
    }
    
  • Zhen Chen
    Shaocheng Song
    Year: 2024
    Research on the Impacts of Different Model Parameters on the Trends of Infectious Diseases Based on Improved SEIR Model
    ICSETPSD
    EAI
    DOI: 10.4108/eai.17-11-2023.2342809
Zhen Chen1, Shaocheng Song1,*
  • 1: College of Computer Science and Technology, Beihua University, Jilin 132013, Jilin, China
*Contact email: fred611@126.com

Abstract

In this research, the infectious disease studied by the authors takes coronavirus disease 2019 as an example. The source of data for research is from Health Commission of Hubei Province during Wuhan epidemic in 2020. The specific time is from January 25, 2020 to April 26, 2020. Set different values for the relevant parameters in the modified SEIR model constructed in Reference 1 to simulate the intensities change of the corresponding prevention and control measures, respectively calculate the results of the model when the relevant parameters are different values, and comparative analysis to find essential and quantitative associations between prevention and control measures in various levels and the epidemic trends. The comparative analysis of results shows that community isolation, travel restriction, compulsory wearing protective equipment, medical isolation and other measures effectively inhibit the rapid spread of the epidemic in a short time; shelter treatment, rapid construction of hospitals, mobilization of medical resources and other measures can reduce the peak of the epidemic and make it fall back quickly. The results show that: in order to maintain the people's life safety, the Central People’s Government of our country takes various epidemic prevention and control measures in Wuhan just like a strong "national vaccine", which helps Wuhan to quickly achieve the victory of the battle against the epidemic in 2020.