Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Economic Management and Model Engineering, ICEMME 2023, November 17–19, 2023, Beijing, China

Research Article

Forecasting the Tourism Development of Yunnan Province with ARIMA and Double ES

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  • @INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.17-11-2023.2342670,
        author={Keyi  Zhao},
        title={Forecasting the Tourism Development of Yunnan Province with ARIMA and Double ES },
        proceedings={Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Economic Management and Model Engineering, ICEMME 2023, November 17--19, 2023, Beijing, China},
        publisher={EAI},
        proceedings_a={ICEMME},
        year={2024},
        month={2},
        keywords={foracasting tourism arima double exponencial smoothing yunnan},
        doi={10.4108/eai.17-11-2023.2342670}
    }
    
  • Keyi Zhao
    Year: 2024
    Forecasting the Tourism Development of Yunnan Province with ARIMA and Double ES
    ICEMME
    EAI
    DOI: 10.4108/eai.17-11-2023.2342670
Keyi Zhao1,*
  • 1: Kunming University of Science and Technology Oxbridge College
*Contact email: cocoa11yi@163.com

Abstract

Yunnan Province is located on the southwestern border of China, with diverse landforms, unique climate and environment, rich ethnic customs, and abundant tourism resources. It is one of the favorable tourist destinations for domestic and foreign tourists in these years. This article takes the total tourism revenue of Yunnan from 1991 to 2022 as a sample. By adopting ARIMA and Double Exponential Smoothing techniques as research modes, to forecasting the trending of total tourism revenue in Yunnan. Compared with the other model mentioned in this article, the Double Exponential Smoothing model is more fitful to forecast. The prediction based on the Double exponential smoothing model indicates that Yunnan tourism will enter a period of rapid growth from 2023 to 2027. The 2023-2025 Yunnan Tourism Development Action Plan formulated by the Yunnan Provincial Government has great potential for success.