Modeling Of Non-Oil And Gas Export Forecasting Aceh Province Using Arima And Double Exponential Methods

Razali Abdullah; Syarifuddin Hasyim; Husaini Husaini

Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Economic and Social Science, ICON-ESS, 17–18 October 2018, Banda Aceh, Indonesia

Research Article

Modeling Of Non-Oil And Gas Export Forecasting Aceh Province Using Arima And Double Exponential Methods

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@INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.17-10-2018.2294214,
    author={Razali  Abdullah and Syarifuddin  Hasyim and Husaini  Husaini},
    title={Modeling Of Non-Oil And Gas Export Forecasting Aceh Province Using Arima And Double Exponential Methods},
    proceedings={Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Economic and Social Science, ICON-ESS, 17--18 October 2018, Banda Aceh, Indonesia},
    publisher={EAI},
    proceedings_a={ICON-ESS},
    year={2020},
    month={4},
    keywords={non oil and gas exports arima double exponential},
    doi={10.4108/eai.17-10-2018.2294214}
}

Razali Abdullah
Syarifuddin Hasyim
Husaini Husaini
Year: 2020
Modeling Of Non-Oil And Gas Export Forecasting Aceh Province Using Arima And Double Exponential Methods
ICON-ESS
EAI
DOI: 10.4108/eai.17-10-2018.2294214

Razali Abdullah¹^,*, Syarifuddin Hasyim², Husaini Husaini³

1: Faculty of Teaching and Education, University of Serambi Mekkah, Jalan Teungku Imum Lueng Bata, Batoh, Banda Aceh 23245 Indonesia
2: FacultyofLaw, Syiah KualaUniversity, BandaAceh,Indonesia
3: Faculty of Teacher Training and Education Syiah Kuala University, Teuku Nyak Arif Street Darussalam 23111, Aceh , Indonesia,

*Contact email: razali.abdullah@serambimekkahac.id

Abstract

Since 2017, there have been no exports of oil and gas commodities (oil and gas) from Aceh Province, so that the commodities exported only come from non-oil and gas commodities. From 2016 to 2015, non-oil and gas exports from Aceh were dominated by urea fertilizer. However, since 2015 there has been no export of urea fertilizer and has been replaced by anhydrous ammonia . K arena is important to model forecasting the value of non-oil exports. The model that is compared is the ARIMA and double exponential methods . The result is the ARIMA method is better in modeling the value of non-oil exports. The results of forecasting non-oil exports in Aceh Province in 2016 showed an increase compared to 2017.

Keywords: non oil and gas exports arima double exponential

Published: 2020-04-28
Publisher: EAI

: http://dx.doi.org/10.4108/eai.17-10-2018.2294214