Analysis of the Impact of Food Imports and Inflation on the Food Security Index in Indonesia

The right to obtain food is a basic right for all people. Food independence is one of the important pillars in maintaining national stability, especially in an agricultural country like Indonesia. However, in recent decades, Indonesia has faced significant challenges related to food independence, one of which is dependence on food imports. Import policies implemented by the government have a direct impact on national food independence, especially in the context of availability, accessibility, and stability of food prices. The purpose of this study is to analyze the interdependence of the Food Security Index (IKP) and inflation on food imports and to analyze the effect of import instrument shocks on the Food Security Index (IKP) in Indonesia. Research methods start with conducting assumption tests and using VECM, then shocks are carried out through Impulse Response and Variance Decompositions. The results of this study indicate an interdependence between the Food Security Index, Inflation, and Food Imports. Furthermore, a one-unit import shock causes an increase in the IKP until the fourth period, then decreases in the fifth period, and increases again in the sixth to tenth periods. Imports successfully increase the IKP indicator, albeit in relatively small amounts.