Forecasting and Establishing National Rice Production Targets in Indonesia

Since 2018 the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics has applied a new method of establishing rice production data; namely, the Area Frame Sampling method, which is considered more objective by analyzing satellite images. This causes rice production historical data becomes very limited due to the method differences that may lead to the need of new forecasting method to predict future rice production and target setting. This study aims to provide recommendations on appropriate : (1) forecasting method to predict national rice production number; and (2) method on setting national rice production targets that can produce a robust, realistic, achievable and accountable number. The Backcasting method was used to overcome the limitations of historical data. Trials on various quantitative methods resulted that the double exponential smoothing method was the most recommended method for predicting future national rice production numbers. This study also suggested to integrate quantitative and qualitative methods in establishing national rice production targets. Production target that exceeds optimistic target numbers requires special programs and efforts to achieve them.