Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Sustainable Management and Innovation, ICoSMI 2020, 14-16 September 2020, Bogor, West Java, Indonesia

Research Article

Forecasting and Establishing National Rice Production Targets in Indonesia

Download145 downloads
  • @INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.14-9-2020.2304658,
        author={Nisa  Zahra and Eko Ruddy Cahyadi},
        title={Forecasting and Establishing National Rice Production  Targets in Indonesia},
        proceedings={Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Sustainable Management and Innovation, ICoSMI 2020, 14-16 September 2020, Bogor, West Java, Indonesia},
        publisher={EAI},
        proceedings_a={ICOSMI},
        year={2021},
        month={5},
        keywords={backcasting double exponential smoothing method forecasting rice production target},
        doi={10.4108/eai.14-9-2020.2304658}
    }
    
  • Nisa Zahra
    Eko Ruddy Cahyadi
    Year: 2021
    Forecasting and Establishing National Rice Production Targets in Indonesia
    ICOSMI
    EAI
    DOI: 10.4108/eai.14-9-2020.2304658
Nisa Zahra1,*, Eko Ruddy Cahyadi1
  • 1: Department of Management, Faculty of Economics and Management, IPB University
*Contact email: nisazahra@apps.ipb.ac.id

Abstract

Since 2018 the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics has applied a new method of establishing rice production data; namely, the Area Frame Sampling method, which is considered more objective by analyzing satellite images. This causes rice production historical data becomes very limited due to the method differences that may lead to the need of new forecasting method to predict future rice production and target setting. This study aims to provide recommendations on appropriate : (1) forecasting method to predict national rice production number; and (2) method on setting national rice production targets that can produce a robust, realistic, achievable and accountable number. The Backcasting method was used to overcome the limitations of historical data. Trials on various quantitative methods resulted that the double exponential smoothing method was the most recommended method for predicting future national rice production numbers. This study also suggested to integrate quantitative and qualitative methods in establishing national rice production targets. Production target that exceeds optimistic target numbers requires special programs and efforts to achieve them.