Research Article
Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Import and Export Trade and Economic Growth in Qinghai Province
@INPROCEEDINGS{10.4108/eai.12-1-2024.2347175, author={Xuemei Chen and Haifeng Zhang and Xiaohua Xing}, title={Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Import and Export Trade and Economic Growth in Qinghai Province}, proceedings={Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Big Data Economy and Digital Management, BDEDM 2024, January 12--14, 2024, Ningbo, China}, publisher={EAI}, proceedings_a={BDEDM}, year={2024}, month={6}, keywords={qinghai province; var model; import and export trade; impulse response}, doi={10.4108/eai.12-1-2024.2347175} }- Xuemei Chen
Haifeng Zhang
Xiaohua Xing
Year: 2024
Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Import and Export Trade and Economic Growth in Qinghai Province
BDEDM
EAI
DOI: 10.4108/eai.12-1-2024.2347175
Abstract
Under the background of "Belt and Road" initiative and high-quality development, it is of great practical significance to accurately identify the relationship between import and export trade and its economic growth in Qinghai Province. The import and export trade data of Qinghai Province from 1990 to 2022 were selected, and a VAR model was constructed on the basis of Granger causality test and Johansen cointegration test, and the relationship between the import and export trade and economic growth of Qinghai Province was analyzed by impulse response and variance decomposition method. The results show that (1) there is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between import and export trade and economic growth in Qinghai Province, and export trade is a unidirectional Granger cause of economic growth; (2) export trade has a positive contribution to economic growth, and total imports and total imports and exports have a weaker explanatory ability for economic growth; (3) in the short term, import and export trade in Qinghai Province has a certain contribution to its economic growth and is poor stability; in the long run, Qinghai Province's import and export trade does not have a significant role in promoting GDP, and its pulling effect on the economy is not significant.
