Effectiveness Demand Forecasting Analysis for XYZ Brand Jeans (Case Study in PTGP)

The textile and apparel industry is a rapidly developing industry and has an influence on the Indonesian economy. Despite having high competition, the textile and apparel industry is one of the interesting industries to be made into business opportunities in several big cities. PTGP is a company that has taken business opportunities in the apparel industry for decades. Companies in the mature category are not always successful in doing business. PTGP must close the business branches owned because operating costs are higher than the revenue generated from sales. Efficient operational costs are needed by every company in carrying out the company's operations. Forecasting is a way that can be used for the company's operational effectiveness and operational cost efficiency. The right time series forecasting method can be determined by looking at the historical data of demand for the product. Single Exponential Smoothing is a forecasting method used in general in various industrial fields using historical data. Holt’s Model is a forecasting method used with the influence of trends in the data used. Winter’s Model is a forecasting method that is used in the presence of trend and seasonal influences on the data used. The forecasting errors generated were 14.38% for the Single Exponential Smoothing method, 10.34% for Holt’s Model, and 15.65% for the Winter’s Model, so the use of Holt’s Model forecasting was more recommended in the textile and apparel industry.