Research Article
The System Dynamics Research on the Private Cars’ Amount in Beijing
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@INPROCEEDINGS{10.1007/978-3-642-02466-5_61, author={Jie Fan and Guang-le Yan}, title={The System Dynamics Research on the Private Cars’ Amount in Beijing}, proceedings={Complex Sciences. First International Conference, Complex 2009, Shanghai, China, February 23-25, 2009. Revised Papers, Part 1}, proceedings_a={COMPLEX PART 1}, year={2012}, month={5}, keywords={Private cars’ amount in Beijing System dynamics Social economic modeling Policy simulation and control}, doi={10.1007/978-3-642-02466-5_61} }- Jie Fan
Guang-le Yan
Year: 2012
The System Dynamics Research on the Private Cars’ Amount in Beijing
COMPLEX PART 1
Springer
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-02466-5_61
Abstract
The thesis analyzes the development problem of private cars’ amount in Beijing from the perspective of system dynamics. With the flow chart illustrating the relationships of relevant elements, the SD model is established by VENSIM to simulate the growth trend of private autos’ amount in the future on the background of “Public Transportation First” policy based on the original data in Beijing. Then the article discusses the forecasting impacts of “Single-and-double license plate number limit” on the number of city vehicles and private cars under the assumption that this policy implemented for long after the 2008 Olympic Games. Finally, some recommendations are put forward for proper control over this problem.
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