Complex Sciences. Second International Conference, COMPLEX 2012, Santa Fe, NM, USA, December 5-7, 2012, Revised Selected Papers

Research Article

Information Dynamic Spectrum Predicts Critical Transitions

Download
308 downloads
  • @INPROCEEDINGS{10.1007/978-3-319-03473-7_24,
        author={Kang-Yu Ni and Tsai-Ching Lu},
        title={Information Dynamic Spectrum Predicts Critical Transitions},
        proceedings={Complex Sciences. Second International Conference, COMPLEX 2012, Santa Fe, NM, USA, December 5-7, 2012, Revised Selected Papers},
        proceedings_a={COMPLEX},
        year={2013},
        month={11},
        keywords={Transfer entropy prediction information dynamics},
        doi={10.1007/978-3-319-03473-7_24}
    }
    
  • Kang-Yu Ni
    Tsai-Ching Lu
    Year: 2013
    Information Dynamic Spectrum Predicts Critical Transitions
    COMPLEX
    Springer
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-03473-7_24
Kang-Yu Ni1,*, Tsai-Ching Lu1,*
  • 1: HRL Laboratories
*Contact email: kni@hrl.com, tlu@hrl.com

Abstract

This paper addresses the need of predicting system instability toward critical transitions occurred in complex systems. A novel information dynamic spectrum framework and a method for automated prediction of system trajectories are proposed. Our framework goes beyond unidirectional diffusion dynamics to investigate heterogeneously networked dynamical systems with transient directional influence dynamics. Our method automatically analyzes the input time series of system instability to predict the instability trajectories toward critical transitions.