Complex Sciences. Second International Conference, COMPLEX 2012, Santa Fe, NM, USA, December 5-7, 2012, Revised Selected Papers

Research Article

Binary Consensus via Exponential Smoothing

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  • @INPROCEEDINGS{10.1007/978-3-319-03473-7_22,
        author={Marco Oca and Eliseo Ferrante and Alexander Scheidler and Louis Rossi},
        title={Binary Consensus via Exponential Smoothing},
        proceedings={Complex Sciences. Second International Conference, COMPLEX 2012, Santa Fe, NM, USA, December 5-7, 2012, Revised Selected Papers},
        proceedings_a={COMPLEX},
        year={2013},
        month={11},
        keywords={Consensus Collective Decision-Making Self-Organization Swarm Intelligence},
        doi={10.1007/978-3-319-03473-7_22}
    }
    
  • Marco Oca
    Eliseo Ferrante
    Alexander Scheidler
    Louis Rossi
    Year: 2013
    Binary Consensus via Exponential Smoothing
    COMPLEX
    Springer
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-03473-7_22
Marco Oca1,*, Eliseo Ferrante, Alexander Scheidler2,*, Louis Rossi1
  • 1: University of Delaware
  • 2: Fraunhofer IWES
*Contact email: mmontes@math.udel.edu, alexander.scheidler@iwes.fraunhofer.de

Abstract

In this paper, we reinterpret the most basic exponential smoothing equation,  = (1 − )  +  , as a model of social influence. This equation is typically used to estimate the value of a series at time  + 1, denoted by , as a convex combination of the current estimate and the actual observation of the time series . In our work, we interpret the variable as an agent’s tendency to adopt the observed behavior or opinion of another agent, which is represented by a binary variable . We study the dynamics of the resulting system when the agents’ recently adopted behaviors or opinions do not change for a period of time of stochastic duration, called latency. Latency allows us to model real-life situations such as product adoption, or action execution. When different latencies are associated with the two different behaviors or opinions, a bias is produced. This bias makes all the agents in a population adopt one specific behavior or opinion. We discuss the relevance of this phenomenon in the swarm intelligence field.