Research Article
Progress Curves and the Prediction of Significant Market Events
@INPROCEEDINGS{10.1007/978-3-319-03473-7_2, author={Sofia Apreleva and Neil Johnson and Tsai-Ching Lu}, title={Progress Curves and the Prediction of Significant Market Events}, proceedings={Complex Sciences. Second International Conference, COMPLEX 2012, Santa Fe, NM, USA, December 5-7, 2012, Revised Selected Papers}, proceedings_a={COMPLEX}, year={2013}, month={11}, keywords={Progress Curve fitting stock indexes currency exchange rates prediction}, doi={10.1007/978-3-319-03473-7_2} }- Sofia Apreleva
Neil Johnson
Tsai-Ching Lu
Year: 2013
Progress Curves and the Prediction of Significant Market Events
COMPLEX
Springer
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-03473-7_2
Abstract
Progress curves have been used to model the evolution of a wide range of human activities – from manufacturing to cancer surgery. In each case, the time to complete a given challenging task is found to decrease with successive repetitions, and follows an approximate power law. Recently, it was also employed in connection with the prediction of the escalation of fatal attacks by insurgent groups, with the insurgency “progressing” by continually adapting, while the opposing force tried to counter-adapt. In the present work, we provide the first application of progress curves to financial market events, in order to gain insight into the dynamics underlying significant changes in economic markets, such as stock indices and the currency exchange rate and also examine their use for eventual prediction of such extreme market events.
