Complex Sciences. Second International Conference, COMPLEX 2012, Santa Fe, NM, USA, December 5-7, 2012, Revised Selected Papers

Research Article

The Crossover Point: Comparing Policies to Mitigate Disruptions

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  • @INPROCEEDINGS{10.1007/978-3-319-03473-7_1,
        author={Matthew Antognoli and Marshall Kuypers and Z. Copley and Walter Beyeler and Michael Mitchell and Robert Glass},
        title={The Crossover Point: Comparing Policies to Mitigate Disruptions},
        proceedings={Complex Sciences. Second International Conference, COMPLEX 2012, Santa Fe, NM, USA, December 5-7, 2012, Revised Selected Papers},
        proceedings_a={COMPLEX},
        year={2013},
        month={11},
        keywords={agent-based modeling complex systems projecting security selfsufficiency trade},
        doi={10.1007/978-3-319-03473-7_1}
    }
    
  • Matthew Antognoli
    Marshall Kuypers
    Z. Copley
    Walter Beyeler
    Michael Mitchell
    Robert Glass
    Year: 2013
    The Crossover Point: Comparing Policies to Mitigate Disruptions
    COMPLEX
    Springer
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-03473-7_1
Matthew Antognoli,*, Marshall Kuypers,*, Z. Copley1, Walter Beyeler2,*, Michael Mitchell2,*, Robert Glass2,*
  • 1: St. Mary’s College of Maryland
  • 2: Sandia National Laboratories
*Contact email: mantogn@sandia.gov, mkuyper@sandia.gov, webeyel@sandia.gov, micmitc@sandia.gov, rjglass@sandia.gov

Abstract

Companies, industries, and nations often consume resources supplied by unstable producers. Perturbations that affect the supplier propagate downstream to create volatility in resource prices. Consumers can invest to reduce this insecurity in two ways; invest in and impose security on the suppliers, or can invest in self-sufficiency so that shocks no longer present devastating consequences.  We use an agent-based model of a complex adaptive system to examine this tradeoff between projecting security and investing in self-sufficiency. This study finds that the significance of tradeoffs correlates with the dependence of the consumer on the supplier.