Research Article
Changes in Patterns of Infectivity and Mortality with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant in Bulgaria
@INPROCEEDINGS{10.1007/978-3-031-44668-9_15, author={Latchezar P. Tomov and Hristina Batselova and Tsvetelina Velikova}, title={Changes in Patterns of Infectivity and Mortality with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant in Bulgaria}, proceedings={Computer Science and Education in Computer Science. 19th EAI International Conference, CSECS 2023, Boston, MA, USA, June 28--29, 2023, Proceedings}, proceedings_a={CSECS}, year={2023}, month={10}, keywords={Branching processes Arima Covid-19 School closures Lethality}, doi={10.1007/978-3-031-44668-9_15} }- Latchezar P. Tomov
Hristina Batselova
Tsvetelina Velikova
Year: 2023
Changes in Patterns of Infectivity and Mortality with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant in Bulgaria
CSECS
Springer
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-44668-9_15
Abstract
We use our previously developed models (branching processes and time series analysis) to track the changes in the spread of the new SARS-COV-2 variant “Omicron” across age groups. We track changes in transmission rates, lethality, and spread between age groups. Omicron was inferred to be less lethal in other studies. We test that by comparing the prediction from our model, which was trained with the data with the previous variants – wild type, alpha and delta variants. We automatically predict new cases by combining the branching process and change point analysis – a reactive approach for precise short-term prediction - the software is installed on the Avitohol supercomputer. We use time series analysis (regression with Arima errors) to predict deaths and to test hypotheses related to the patterns of spread across age groups and the factors that influence it.
