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Computer Science and Education in Computer Science. 19th EAI International Conference, CSECS 2023, Boston, MA, USA, June 28–29, 2023, Proceedings

Research Article

Changes in Patterns of Infectivity and Mortality with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant in Bulgaria

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BibTeX Plain Text
  • @INPROCEEDINGS{10.1007/978-3-031-44668-9_15,
        author={Latchezar P. Tomov and Hristina Batselova and Tsvetelina Velikova},
        title={Changes in Patterns of Infectivity and Mortality with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant in Bulgaria},
        proceedings={Computer Science and Education in Computer Science. 19th EAI International Conference, CSECS 2023, Boston, MA, USA, June 28--29, 2023, Proceedings},
        proceedings_a={CSECS},
        year={2023},
        month={10},
        keywords={Branching processes Arima Covid-19 School closures Lethality},
        doi={10.1007/978-3-031-44668-9_15}
    }
    
  • Latchezar P. Tomov
    Hristina Batselova
    Tsvetelina Velikova
    Year: 2023
    Changes in Patterns of Infectivity and Mortality with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant in Bulgaria
    CSECS
    Springer
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-44668-9_15
Latchezar P. Tomov1,*, Hristina Batselova2, Tsvetelina Velikova3
  • 1: Department of Informatics, New Bulgarian University
  • 2: Department of Epidemiology and Disaster Medicine
  • 3: Medical Faculty, Sofia University St. Kliment Ohridski
*Contact email: lptomov@nbu.bg

Abstract

We use our previously developed models (branching processes and time series analysis) to track the changes in the spread of the new SARS-COV-2 variant “Omicron” across age groups. We track changes in transmission rates, lethality, and spread between age groups. Omicron was inferred to be less lethal in other studies. We test that by comparing the prediction from our model, which was trained with the data with the previous variants – wild type, alpha and delta variants. We automatically predict new cases by combining the branching process and change point analysis – a reactive approach for precise short-term prediction - the software is installed on the Avitohol supercomputer. We use time series analysis (regression with Arima errors) to predict deaths and to test hypotheses related to the patterns of spread across age groups and the factors that influence it.

Keywords
Branching processes Arima Covid-19 School closures Lethality
Published
2023-10-11
Appears in
SpringerLink
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-44668-9_15
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