Research Article
Measuring the Impact of Oil Revenues on Government Debt in Selected Countries by Using ARDL Model
@INPROCEEDINGS{10.1007/978-3-031-35081-8_14, author={Mustafa Kamil Rasheed and Ahmed Hadi Salman and Amer Sami Mounir}, title={Measuring the Impact of Oil Revenues on Government Debt in Selected Countries by Using ARDL Model}, proceedings={Intelligent Systems and Machine Learning. First EAI International Conference, ICISML 2022, Hyderabad, India, December 16-17, 2022, Proceedings, Part II}, proceedings_a={ICISML PART 2}, year={2023}, month={7}, keywords={Oil Revenues GDP Government Debt ARDLModel StationaryTest}, doi={10.1007/978-3-031-35081-8_14} }- Mustafa Kamil Rasheed
Ahmed Hadi Salman
Amer Sami Mounir
Year: 2023
Measuring the Impact of Oil Revenues on Government Debt in Selected Countries by Using ARDL Model
ICISML PART 2
Springer
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-35081-8_14
Abstract
The study examined the relationship between oil revenues and government debt. Most oil-producing countries suffer from a problem in the sustainability of public debt, and the inability of these countries to manage financial resources efficiently, especially oil revenues in order to eliminate the accumulation of government debt.
The study used two indicators: the ratio of oil revenues to GDP, and the ratio of government debt to GDP, and through the use of ARDL model for co-integration, they were applied to five oil countries, and that the study period is (2004–2018). The study concluded that the relationship between oil revenues and government debt was negative, which is identical to the logic of economic theory, but some countries have exceeded the internationally safe ratio of government debt to GDP, which means the inability of the financial policy maker to manage oil revenues well.
The study recommended the importance of the oil resource in order to strengthen the structure of GDP, and encounter the obstacles and problems in the macroeconomic, and that the oil revenues are able to pay off the government debt and improve the national economy.
