Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google

Bo Cowgill; Justin Wolfers; Eric Zitzewitz

Auctions, Market Mechanisms and Their Applications. First International ICST Conference, AMMA 2009, Boston, MA, USA, May 8-9, 2009, Revised Selected Papers

Research Article

Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google

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@INPROCEEDINGS{10.1007/978-3-642-03821-1_2,
    author={Bo Cowgill and Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz},
    title={Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google},
    proceedings={Auctions, Market Mechanisms and Their Applications. First International ICST Conference, AMMA 2009, Boston, MA, USA, May 8-9, 2009, Revised Selected Papers},
    proceedings_a={AMMA},
    year={2012},
    month={5},
    keywords={prediction markets information transmission bias market efficiancy peer effects},
    doi={10.1007/978-3-642-03821-1_2}
}

Bo Cowgill
Justin Wolfers
Eric Zitzewitz
Year: 2012
Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google
AMMA
Springer
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-03821-1_2

Bo Cowgill¹^,*, Justin Wolfers²^,*, Eric Zitzewitz³^,*

1: Google, Inc
2: University of Pennsylvania
3: Dartmouth College

*Contact email: bcowgill@google.com, jwolfers@wharton.upenn.edu, eric.zitzewitz@dartmouth.edu

Abstract

Since 2005, Google has conducted the largest corporate experiment with prediction markets we are aware of. In this paper, we illustrate how markets can be used to study how an organization processes information. We show that market participants are not typical of Google’s workforce, and that market participation and success is skewed towards Google’s engineering and quantitatively oriented employees.

Keywords: prediction markets information transmission bias market efficiancy peer effects

Published: 2012-05-16

: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-03821-1_2